This is a very long article, the longest ever written on The Futurist. As it is a guide to the next decade of social, political, and sexual strife, it is not meant to be read in one shot but rather digested slowly over an extended period, with all supporting links read as well. As the months and years of this decade progress, this article will seem all the more prophetic.
Posted on November 30, by Scott Alexander I. If the world was created by the Invisible Hand, who is good, how did it come to contain so much that is evil? Can he expect to get rich? No — if Google stock was underpriced ie you could easily get rich by buying Google stockthen everyone smart enough to notice would buy it.
As everyone tried to buy it, the price would go up until it was no longer underpriced. Big Wall Street banks have people who are at least as smart as your uncle, and who will notice before he does whether stocks are underpriced. The city has lots of skilled Thai chefs and good access to low-priced Thai ingredients.
With the certainty of physical law, we can know that city will have a Thai restaurant.
Maybe the city government banned Thai restaurants for some reason? We can take this beyond money-making into any competitive or potentially-competitive field. There are thousands of research biologists who would like a Nobel Prize.
But go too far with this kind of logic, and you start accidentally proving that nothing can be bad anywhere. Suppose you thought that modern science was brokenwith scientists and grantmakers doing a bad job of focusing their discoveries on truly interesting and important things.
But if this were true, then you or anyone else with a little money could set up a non-broken science, make many more discoveries than everyone else, get more Nobel Prizes, earn more money from all your patents and inventions, and eventually become so prestigious and rich that everyone else admits you were right and switches to doing science your way.
There are dozens of government bodies, private institutions, and universities that could do this kind of thing if they wanted. But none of them have. All the sick people would go to them, they would make lots of money, investors would trip over each other to fund their expansion into new markets, and eventually they would take over health care and be super rich.
But if lots of people want better mass transit and are willing to pay for it, this is a great money-making opportunity. Entrepreneurs are pretty smart, so they would notice this money-making opportunity, raise some funds from equally-observant venture capitalists, make a better mass transit system, and get really rich off of all the tickets.
But nobody has done this. No doctor had any good ideas about what to do at this point. Eliezer did some digging, found that existing light boxes were still way less bright than the sun, and jury-rigged a much brighter version.
A friend told Eliezer that the professionals at the Bank surely knew more than he did. But after a few years, the Bank of Japan switched policies, the Japanese economy instantly improved, and now the consensus position is that the original policies were deeply flawed in exactly the way Eliezer and others thought they were.
You would expect it to just not work at all. In previous years, I would use the case of central-line infections as my go-to example of medical inadequacy.Society.
The Professor of Piffle. The dangerous underside of Jordan Peterson’s crusade against the humanities. BY Ira Wells. Updated , Nov. 27, Jun 26, · Los Angeles Rams executive Kevin Demoff says that contract talks with defensive tackle Aaron Donald have been "great" and he's looking forward to .
Yesterday I shared a brief passage from W.E.B. DuBois on Confederate monuments. Below is an short essay from DuBois on Robert E. Lee’s legacy published in Source: The Crisis, March , v, n.3 [found in the “Postscript” section] Robert E.
Lee Each year on the 19th of January there is renewed effort to can. Unmaking England Will immigration demolish in decades a nation built over centuries? Losing the War. Man is a bubble, and all the world is a stormJeremy Taylor, Holy Dying () My father owned a gorgeous porcelain tiger about half the size of a house cat.
Aug 11, · Such is the fruitless, hamster-like mental scratching that greets me when I awake in the morning, or while waiting for the subway train. Just about now I can hear the angry snorts from writers who.